Sheza Alibi is physically equipped and sufficiently talented to become the first three-year-old filly this century to win the Group 1 $4 million Doncaster Mile (1600m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

This is the opinion of the jockey who rode the last filly to win a Doncaster, the great Sunline in 1999.

Larry Cassidy told Racing And Sports that Sheza Alibi would be his choice of ride in the famous Randwick mile and believes bad luck is her biggest danger.

Even the crucial Doncaster barrier draw which is revealed on Tuesday morning doesn't concern Cassidy because Sheza Alibi gets into the Doncaster with only 49kg.

"A good barrier is always important and you would take between six and 10 any day of the week,'' Cassidy said.

"But I don't think it matters that much for Sheza Alibi because she has only 49kg and that is the key to Saturday's race.

"It will feel like she hasn't got a jockey aboard with that weight. Also, her rider, Jamie Melham, can afford to make use of her at some point in the race.

"You would think only bad luck will beat her but those good horses don't usually have bad luck and she can make her own luck with that light weight.''

The Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman-trained Sheza Alibi is the $2 favourite with TAB Fixed Odds for the Doncaster – Sunline was 10/9 favourite or about $2.10 when she won as a three-year-old filly – and could start even shorter if she draws a favourable barrier.

Sheza Alibi, who is an average-sized filly with a powerful strong hindquarter, rocketed to Doncaster favouritism after her dominant last start win over Autumn Boy in the Group 1 Randwick Guineas.

She has continued to firm in the last few days after it was revealed super mare Autumn Glow would miss the Doncaster and be reserved for the Group 1 $5 million Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at Royal Randwick on April 11.

Since Sunline's won the first or her two Doncasters in 1999, the only filly to even place in the big race was Norzita when she ran third behind Sacred Falls and Pierro as three-year-olds ran the trifecta in 2013.

But Cassidy said he saw enough from Sheza Alibi when she defeated Autumn Boy in the Randwick Guineas last start to confidently predict she will break the fillies hoodoo in the Doncaster.

"Sheza Alibi was racing against quality opposition in the Guineas but she made them look second rate, she won in a canter,'' the retired former champion jockey said.

"Then Autumn Boy came out and won the Rosehill Guineas impressively which has really franked the filly's form.

"I just keep coming back to Sheza Alibi's 49kg – when I won the Doncaster on Sunline she had 52kg and I was very confident that year.''

Sunline had won 10 of her 11 starts going into the 1999 Doncaster but had only one Group 1 win to her credit at that time which was over the Randwick mile in the Flight Stakes.

Similarly, Sheza Alibi has won six of her nine starts with one Group 1 success so far in the Randwick Guineas over the Randwick 1600m course but she will carry 3kg less than Sunline did in the Doncaster.

"I didn't think they could beat Sunline in the Doncaster,'' Cassidy revealed.

"I knew I would lead and when she jumped well, I let her roll and she was 'high-balling' early.

"For a Doncaster field, they are usually spread out over 15 lengths but there was only about seven or eight lengths from first to last which is nothing, really.

"They were keeping the pressure on Sunline, staying right on my hammer, and we ran the first half mile (a800m) in a tick over 46s.

"But I wasn't overly worried because she travelled 'strong', I was swinging on her coming to the turn and I thought 'I've got a lapful of horse here'.

"As I came up the rise I went for her and she just raced away from them.''

Sunline was a natural leader in her races but Sheza Alibi does tend to settle off-speed.

Cassidy, who had a terrific record in feature Randwick miles, said if Sheza Alibi draws wide it isn't necessarily a negative for the filly.

"You can sit three-deep with cover at Randwick and still win these big mile races,'' he said.

"I won an Epsom on Golden Sword (1993) when he had to race three-wide with cover from barrier 18.

"If you have no weight on your back like Sheza Alibi has on Saturday, then you can afford to race wide. I've got no doubt Sheza Alibi is the one to beat in the Doncaster.''

Aritcle by: Ray Thomas, International Editor of Racing and Sports

Photo: Martin King / Sportpix