Joseph O’Brien will try to turn last year’s near-miss into victory when he targets the Ascot Stakes (4000m) with Puturhandstogether, twelve months after saddling the second, third and fourth in Royal Ascot’s opening-day marathon.

The Irish challenge again looks central. Irish-trained runners have won six of the last twelve renewals, while ten of the last twelve winners came from jumps or dual-purpose yards. Last year’s result crystallised both trends, with Henry de Bromhead’s Ascending leading home an Irish-trained first four and O’Brien filling the next three places.

Puturhandstogether is one of the cleaner statistical fits. He is rated 92, inside the key recent band, with nine of the last ten winners rated 91 or higher and seven of the last ten between 91 and 98. His 39-day break since the Chester Cup (3700m) is also almost exact, with the last ten winners averaging 42.2 days off and the median at 39 days.

“He is another aiming for the Ascot Stakes,” O’Brien told Sky Sports Racing. “He ran well from a very tough draw in the Chester Cup. He wouldn’t be sure to stay this far, but it is definitely worth a shot. His run at Chester suggests he can be competitive off his mark in a race like this.”

The Chester route has substance. Coltrane was second there before winning this in 2022, while Reshoun also came through the same race before scoring in 2021. Puturhandstogether finished seventh this year, with Galileo Dame fourth from a mark of 93. She is now rated 94, another strong historical mark, although a 108-day break is a clearer negative.

Donnacha O’Brien’s Kilmeaden also fits the lower edge of the ratings pattern. Rated 91, he returns 23 days after his latest run, just outside the most productive 25-52-day window but still fresher than several rivals. His hurdles background is relevant, with seven of the last ten winners having previously run over obstacles.

“He won over hurdles at Punchestown, but disappointed in two starts since, so we’ll get him back on the Flat now for premier handicaps,” O’Brien told Sky Sports Racing. “I wouldn’t rule out having another go over hurdles, but he has the right rating to get into valuable handicaps on the Flat and that route makes appeal. He won at Galway last year, so getting him back there is something we’ll keep in mind.”

Willie Mullins remains the race’s defining modern trainer, although his record comes with a recent caveat. His four wins since 2012 came with Simenon in 2012, Clondaw Warrior in 2015, Thomas Hobson in 2017 and Lagostovegas in 2018, but he has not won it since, and Reaching High was beaten as favourite last year.

Bunting has the right stable profile and a workable mark of 98, but a 248-day absence is against the usual preparation pattern. Reaching High is also Mullins-trained and rated 94, yet his 364-day layoff is a major statistical concern, with only one of the last ten winners returning from more than 90 days off.

Photo: Healy Racing