Hall of Fame jockey Shane Dye has a simple take on the contentious debate about which race super mare Autumn Glow should contest during The Championships at Royal Randwick.

"Autumn Glow will win the Queen Elizabeth, no risk, but she could get beaten in the Doncaster,'' he said.

Dye spoke to Racing And Sports after watching Autumn Glow's virtuoso performance to win the George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill last Saturday.
Racing's "Miss Invincible" maintained her unbeaten record with the most commanding win of her 11-start career, earning a career-peak Timeform rating of 128.

Trainer Chris Waller, jockey James McDonald and owner John Messara are due to meet as early as Tuesday to determine Autumn Glow's next start which will be her final race of the season.

The options are the Group 1 $4 million Doncaster Mile (1600m) at Royal Randwick on April 4 or the Group 1 $5 million Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at the same track seven days later.

The Doncaster is over the famous Randwick mile course where Autumn Glow is very effective but the mare has been allocated 56.5kg which means she has to concede last-start Group 1 winning three-year-olds Sheza Alibi (49kg) and Autumn Boy (52kg) 7.5kg and 4.5kg respectively.

Then there is the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at weight-for-age but over a race distance that could expose Autumn Glow's stamina reserves as she has never been over further than 1600m.

But Dye, who is never afraid to speak his mind, said there is enough evidence to suggest Autumn Glow will stay a strong 2000m if the decision is made to go to the Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

"I would definitely run her in the Queen Elizabeth - and she will win it,'' Dye said.

"The way Autumn Glow relaxes, switches off in her races, tells me she will get the extra distance.
"Plus, you have to listen to the jockey, James McDonald, and he is convinced she will get the trip.

"James knows the mare so well and he is saying there is no problem with her at 2000m.''

Dye said once Autumn Glow proves she can run a strong 2000m then it will "open more doors" for the super mare next season.

"It also sets you up for the spring with the Cox Plate in mind,'' he added.

Autumn Glow is at $1.70 favourite for the Queen Elizabeth Stakes and TAB Fixed Odds spokesman Tim Ryan said the mare would be even shorter if there is confirmation she will definitely contest the 2000m weight-for-age race.

In the Doncaster Mile, Randwick Guineas winner Sheza Alibi is the $2.30 favourite ahead of Autumn Glow at $3.50 and Autumn Boy at $5.

Dye said Autumn Glow is vulnerable in the Doncaster carrying her 56.5kg burden.

"Weight can stop a train,'' Dye said. "We saw that with Tentyris in the Newmarket Handicap.

"I'm not saying Autumn Glow can't win the Doncaster, don't get me wrong, she would still win it because she is that good, she is a superstar.
"But she won't even start favourite if she runs in the Doncaster. Sheza Alibi is a very good filly and she will stay as the favourite with the big weight pull she has over the mare.

"Sheza Alibi also has very good form. She put paid to Autumn Boy in two strides in the Randwick Guineas and Autumn Boy came out and won the Rosehill Guineas easily last Saturday.''

Waller and McDonald are leaning more to the Queen Elizabeth for Autumn Glow but Messara is keeping an open mind.

However, Messara is adamant Autumn Glow would not attempt the Doncaster-Queen Elizabeth Stakes double last achieved by More Joyous in 2012.

"I think there will be one more start then the mare can have a bit of a break before the spring,'' Messara said.

Autumn Glow is now the front-runner for Horse of the Year. She has won her seven starts so far this season including three Group 1 wins in the Epsom Handicap, Verry Elleegant Stakes and George Ryder Stakes. She also won the Golden Eagle which is deserving of Group 1 status.

Significantly, Autumn Glow has won Group 1 races in spring and autumn, under handicap and weight-for-age conditions.

A win in either the Doncaster Mile or Queen Elizabeth Stakes during The Championships will guarantee Autumn Glow Horse of the Year honours.

Aritcle: Ray Thomas, International Editor for Racing and Sports

Photo: Martin King